Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsCrime & Justice
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Data as of Jul 28, 2026, 12:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2027 10%
Market quality
20 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingJan 7, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
10%
0%
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Volume trend
$19Jul 316d of dataJul 27
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If any California statewide elected official or Governor's cabinet member has been federally charged with fraud after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges.