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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?
Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?

Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?

1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsCrime & Justice6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027 29%-1.0%
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.9

Liquidity

$26.5

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

23.0% / 29.0%

Spread

26.1%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jan 7, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before Jan 1, 202729%

Rules

If any California statewide elected official or Governor's cabinet member has been federally charged with fraud after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
  • Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
  • Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.
  • If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
  • Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

If any California statewide elected official or Governor's cabinet member has been federally charged with fraud after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
  • Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
  • Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.
  • If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
  • Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges.