Will Trump be impeached and removed from office during his second term?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionCrime & JusticePolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92.6%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 3:34 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- No President has ever been impeached and removed from office.
- This market resolves YES if Trump is both impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate during his second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029).
- While it only takes a simple majority of the House to impeach, a vote of two-thirds of the Senate is required to convict.
- If the President is removed, the Vice-President assumes the Presidency.
- Resolution will be determined by official congressional records at Congress.gov.
