Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffSociety & CultureEntertainment2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.5%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 26, 7:31 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?
Manifold MarketsWhat conservatives will come out as LGBT in 2026? (Add Answers)
Manifold MarketsObamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030
Manifold Markets60 minutes: Joe Rogan joins as a Correspondent this year?
KalshiRules
In a live stream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR9G3eMEmxE) Tor encouraged viewers to create a prediction market about whether he would come out as trans.
- To resolve YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met:
- A public announcement in any public social media such as Twitter, Bluesky, Youtube, Instagram or public Facebook post before 23:59:59 EST on 31/12/2026 by Tor Parsons (or the person formerly known as Tor Parsons) of Tor's transgender or non-binary status.
- A public announcement as above that Tor is taking estrogen or testosterone-blockers for the purpose of feminisation.
- A public announcement as above that Tor has changed his pronouns to no longer include he/him.
- The edge case of Tor changing his pronouns to he/they will still resolve to NO if none of the other conditions are met, though they/he will resolve to YES.
