Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.1%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 10, 25, 10:38 PM UTCJul 1, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Announced and confirmed by them, or credible clear reports that they don't live together and/ or are separated.
- Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria clarification:
- Death does not count: Only a deliberate decay of the relationship (through divorce or separation) meets the resolution criteria.
- Focus on relationship decay: The market outcome is based solely on whether the relationship falls apart, not on events such as a death.
- Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's deadline of 'mid 2030' is defined as the end of day on June 30, 2030, California time.
