Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.1%
Forecasters
106
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 23, 2:33 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift publicly come out as gay, bisexual, or queer before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is elected, will the US become bad enough for me as a trans woman that I have to emigrate to the UK?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.
- This includes both stealth trans Republicans and closeted trans Republicans.
- This market resolves NO if no Republican who is in office comes out as trans, either on the campaign trail or after their term has completed.
- Edit: Removed the word currently to remove ambiguity and bring into better alignment with the question.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? resolve?
- Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.