Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.5%
Forecasters
107
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 23, 2:33 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
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This market resolves YES if a Republican in office comes out as trans before 2030.
- This includes both stealth trans Republicans and closeted trans Republicans.
- This market resolves NO if no Republican who is in office comes out as trans, either on the campaign trail or after their term has completed.
- Edit: Removed the word currently to remove ambiguity and bring into better alignment with the question.
