Current community forecast
Tim Scott 13.1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
17
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 16, 26, 5:17 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsWill Tor Parsons (Tor's Cabinet of Curiosities) publicly come out as trans by EoY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Connor Storrie come out as gay or bisexual by December 31 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf I come out as nonbinary, will it go well?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each answer if that person publicly comes out as LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or other non-heterosexual/non-cisgender identity) at any point during 2026.
- Resolution requires a public statement or credible media reporting of such a disclosure by the individual themselves or their official representatives.
- Rumors, speculation, or third-party allegations do not constitute resolution criteria.
- The market resolves NO for any answer where no such public disclosure occurs by December 31, 2026.
- While just 15 percent of queer people registered to vote self-identify as Republican, there is a documented history of closeted conservative politicians.
