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What conservatives will come out as LGBT in 2026? (Add Answers)

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Donald Trump 1%-5.7%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

17

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Mar 16, 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Donald Trump1%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for each answer if that person publicly comes out as LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or other non-heterosexual/non-cisgender identity) at any point during 2026.
Resolution requires a public statement or credible media reporting of such a disclosure by the individual themselves or their official representatives.
Rumors, speculation, or third-party allegations do not constitute resolution criteria.
The market resolves NO for any answer where no such public disclosure occurs by December 31, 2026.
While just 15 percent of queer people registered to vote self-identify as Republican, there is a documented history of closeted conservative politicians.

Volume trend

$403

Jul 122d of dataJul 13

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES for each answer if that person publicly comes out as LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or other non-heterosexual/non-cisgender identity) at any point during 2026.
Resolution requires a public statement or credible media reporting of such a disclosure by the individual themselves or their official representatives.
Rumors, speculation, or third-party allegations do not constitute resolution criteria.
The market resolves NO for any answer where no such public disclosure occurs by December 31, 2026.
While just 15 percent of queer people registered to vote self-identify as Republican, there is a documented history of closeted conservative politicians.