Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup?
One-OffSociety & CulturePolitics5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.3%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 23, 7:32 PM UTCMar 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Gallup polls Americans on whether they identify as LGBT.
- Since polling began, Americans' self-identification as LGBT has risen from 3.5% in 2012 to 7.2% in 2022.
- In the last three years, polling results were published in articles on Gallup's website the February after the year in-question (2020, 2021, 2022).
- Polling temporarily lapsed in 2018 and 2019.
- If Gallup does not publish anything on this question for all of the next 3 years, this question resolves N/A. So long as at least 1 of the next 3 years has directly comparable data, this question resolves YES if any of Gallup's polling shows that 10% or more of Americans identify as LGBT.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup? resolve?
- Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup? is scheduled to resolve on March 1, 2027.
- How is Will 10% of Americans identify as LGBT before the end of 2026, according to Gallup? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Gallup polls Americans on whether they identify as LGBT.