Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 1:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 65.2%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).
- @/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
- @/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2