Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.4%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRules
As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).
- @/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
- @/Symmetry/will-a-new-major-war-break-out-in-2-8tl6CEuhl2
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? resolve?
- Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As judged by the Wikipedia "major war" category, once all 2026 updates are in (presumably early 2027).