Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
ExchangeGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChina2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85.9%
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36
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 25, 4:23 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible.
- If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
- Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
- Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation.
- That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
