Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 30, 23, 2:39 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
- Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
- This is the threshold I will also be using for this market.
- I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
