Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?
One-OffPoliticsGeopoliticsSouth Asia3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57.4%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Aug 17, 23, 3:18 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)
Manifold MarketsWill the Taliban control Afghanistan in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHibatullah Akhundzada still Taliban’s Supreme Commander through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExRules
The uprising has to spread to more than 30% of the country.
