Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 25, 5:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
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ForecastExRules
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
Open markets
AI
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
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- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
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- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.