Current community forecast
No 70.1%
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15
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 28, 26, 11:55 PM UTCApr 8, 33, 10:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRules
"Humans begin using speech to pass on what they've learned within a lifetime and then immediately become superintelligent (compared to other animals)" and "AI begins using continual learning to pass on what they've learned in-context within RL and deployment and then immediately becomes superintelligent" don't analogize perfectly, but it's close.
- Will ASI happen less than 365 days after a frontier-ish AI company deploys better-than-nothing continual learning?
- N/A if ASI happens first
- Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning is defined as models being able to learn new things at the weights level without being retrained from scratch.
- Key distinguishing features:
- Current training loops (retraining from scratch or from base model) do not qualify
