Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 84.6%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 25, 4:14 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExRules
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
