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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 75.8%
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27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 25, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
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ForecastExRules
The breakthrough needs to make LLMs better at learning from context at test time.
- Some examples of results that could demonstrate this breakthrough would be a model that shows less degradation than contemporaries on long-context or one that can more effectively learn from mistakes during agentic tasks.
- The breakthrough needs to be major and conceptual, it can't be something as simple as models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling.
- In order to count this breakthrough must apply to general LLMs, not just using continual learning to solve a narrow problem or class of problems
- A paper claiming to have a really good result isn't enough (like the Titans paper).
- The breakthrough must be widely accepted as legitimate and there should be publicly accessible models that use it
