Will there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030?
One-OffGeopolitics3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleAug 23, 23, 12:20 PM UTCDec 29, 29, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
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ForecastExRules
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will have a large effect on the water politics in the region.
- This question will resolve yes in the case of a successful attack that causes at least $1,000,000 USD worth of damages, or in the case of a thwarted/repelled imminent attack that intended to and reasonably could have caused this amount of damage.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030? resolve?
- Will there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 29, 2029.
- How is Will there be a major attack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will have a large effect on the water politics in the region.