Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
48
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 15, 23, 1:46 AM UTCSep 22, 43, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Civil war: more of 25% of the US by area is not functionally governed by the US government.
- Resolves in 2043 or whenever the civil war occurred.