Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChinaElectionUS Politics8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states 62.1%Leader of 4 outcomes
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states 62.1%Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 24, 10:23 AM UTCDec 31, 34, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
- Resolves according to Metaculus.
- See the fine-print there.
- Trumps chances: @/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
- Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
- The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
