Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.1%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 23, 8:55 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 4:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
They don't have to actually declassify *everything* to resolve YES.
- It's enough that they make some substantial declassifications and do it in a way that seems intended to give the impression that they are "declassifying everything".
- Redactions are fine, national security exceptions are fine, this is ultimately more about political perception than reality.
- If a presidential candidate pledges to declassify everything and then on winning election does some significant declassifications in a way that seems intended to fulfill that campaign promise that would presumptively resolve YES.
- In case of ambiguity I may resolve to market IF I think the market price seems reasonable and not an artifact of manipulation or poor liquidity.
- Otherwise I will just make my own best judgement.
