Current community forecast
Harald Malmgren 100%Leader of 31 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 20, 25, 9:35 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:23 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which American public figures will serve jail time before 2030? [unlinked, add responses]
Manifold MarketsWhich celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Manifold MarketsWhich public figures will outlive @Orangey?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following public figures will transition before 2027
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketRules
This is a place to track which public figures have assigned academic credence to the possibility that aliens/UAP are real and have been covertly studied for decades.
- Will resolve "yes" as individuals express publicly that there is sufficient evidence to suggest a secret program.
- Will resolve "no" when either (1) individuals die or (2) a secret program is demonstrably proven nonexistent.
- Really though, it's a place to keep track of which scientists are open to the UAP topic and bet on when they will reach that point in their scientific inquiry.
