Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.3%
Forecasters
91
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 23, 11:29 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of OpenAI or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
