Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (79.2%)
Resolved: Oct 15, 2026, 5:58 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningSource data degradedStale data
Data as of Oct 16, 2026, 8:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes79.2%
No20.799999999999997%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the US Government closes the deal to purchase a large share of Intel stock ~10% and the deal is not reversed.
- Resolution will be 3 months after deal closes if there is no lawsuit pending.
- If a lawsuit is pending it will resolve after the lawsuit.
- Resolves NO if the deal is rejected, blocked, reversed, or any synonym of it not happening.
- https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/content/0000050863-25-000129/0000050863-25-000129.pdf