If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.7%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 9, 24, 11:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsAI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
PolymarketAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows US AI progress before the 2026 midterms?
- This market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election.
- Biden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-the-us-governmen
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+3.1pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.4pt2%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $705.4M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $219.4M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.7M
- 24h Vol
- $677.4K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.3pt93%
- Yes+2.3pt7%
- Total Vol
- $21.5M
- 24h Vol
- $637.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 more outcomes
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows US AI progress before the 2026 midterms?