Current community forecast
No 56.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 4, 25, 12:35 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Some of the apparent generalisation of LLMs is actually hidden interpolation on semantic duplicates of the test set that get included in training corpuses.
- These are really hard to filter out.
- e.g. See that at least 7 of the 30 AIME 2025 questions were present on the internet before the competition.
- Resolution: at the end of next year, will I believe that >25% of apparent (i.e. ECI) AI progress 2023-2026 is actually hidden interpolation?
- My current fraction (Dec 2025): 35%
- If you want to use a model of me as well as your model of AI to answer, here are some of my views.
