Will the US enter a depression if the Democrats win the midterms?
One-OffEconomyPoliticsUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 26, 4:45 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Depression defined as
- a 10% decrease in GDP, OR
- an economic contraction lasting 3 or more years, OR
- unemployment rates >20%, OR
- 2 years of deflation due to decreased demand (must be combined with other spikes, e.g. high unemployment >10% but not reaching 20%, or significant underemployment where everyone is driving Uber or other gigwork, and/or a significant decrease in GDP >5% but that does not quite reach 10%), OR
- Widespread banking collapse, debt defaults, lots of lost money, (must be combined with other spikes, see previous point)