Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?
Trade PolicyOne-OffAITechGeopoliticsUS Politics8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 21, 26, 2:32 PM UTCDec 31, 34, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if the US launches, authorizes, or is credibly reported by major reliable sources to have carried out an attack against one or more European AI or compute providers before January 1st 2035.
- For this market, “attack” includes kinetic military action, sabotage, or cyber operations intended to disable, damage, destroy, seize, or materially disrupt the target’s AI, cloud, semiconductor, data center, or high-performance computing infrastructure.
- “European AI/compute providers” means companies, public institutions, or infrastructure operators headquartered in Europe or primarily operating European AI/compute infrastructure, including data centers, cloud providers, AI labs, semiconductor facilities, or supercomputing centers.
- Resolves NO if no such attack occurs before January 1st 2035, or if the action is limited to ordinary sanctions, export controls, tariffs, diplomatic pressure, legal action, commercial restrictions, espionage without material disruption, or routine intelligence gathering.
- Resolution should be based on credible public reporting, official statements, court documents, government disclosures, or other strong evidence.
