Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.2%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 3, 26, 7:52 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
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Manifold MarketsOpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does By the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space? resolve?
- By the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.