Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 54.1%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 30, 25, 1:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?
Manifold MarketsMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2028, will the lowest cost way to generate AI compute be in space?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketOpenAI’s valuation end of September 2026?
PolymarketRules
Meta plans capital expenditures of $66-72 billion in 2025 and expects similarly large increases in 2026 to bring additional AI compute capacity online.
- Zuckerberg revealed plans to build several multi-gigawatt datacenter clusters, with the first (Prometheus) coming online in 2026, and a second (Hyperion) scaling up to 5GW over several years.
- Meta is targeting deployment of more than one million GPUs to support next-generation AI models.
- However, Meta signed a $14.2 billion contract with CoreWeave to supply compute services for AI through 2031, and Meta also signed a six-year agreement with Google Cloud valued at more than $10 billion for AI model training and deployment.
- This indicates Meta is currently a buyer of external compute rather than a seller.
- Considerations
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $560.1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-10.5pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8M
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Total Vol
- $14.9K
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.8pt60.2%
- 8–11B+6.3pt9.7%
- 11–14B-0.1pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? resolve?
- Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Meta plans capital expenditures of $66-72 billion in 2025 and expects similarly large increases in 2026 to bring additional AI compute capacity online.