KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 94%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.8% / 12.0%
Spread
5.2 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 94% | +84pt | $0 | $3.9K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket80% match · verified | Low | 91% | +81pt | $0 | $10.1K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
0.5 pts5mo
+0.0pt90.1%
9.9%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$22.3K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If a bill establishing a minimum wage of at least $30 per hour for New York City set to go in effect 2030 or earlier has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law.
- For standard legislation requiring executive approval, this includes final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods.
- For legislation not requiring executive approval, this includes final passage and completion of required waiting periods.
- For constitutional amendments, this includes passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes.
- For executive orders, this includes official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1Jul 216d of dataJul 26
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If a bill establishing a minimum wage of at least $30 per hour for New York City set to go in effect 2030 or earlier has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Enactment requires completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for the legislation to become binding law.
- For standard legislation requiring executive approval, this includes final passage by all required legislative bodies, executive signature OR becoming law despite executive inaction OR successful veto override, and satisfaction of any required waiting periods.
- For legislation not requiring executive approval, this includes final passage and completion of required waiting periods.
- For constitutional amendments, this includes passage with required supermajorities and completion of ratification processes.
- For executive orders, this includes official signature, publication in official government records, and legal effectiveness.