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<2035 62%Leader of 7 outcomes
<2035 62%Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 5, 24, 2:26 AM UTCJan 2, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.
- Qualifying events:
- Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.
- Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.
- If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.
- Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question
