Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 24, 10:30 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If one or more of the following events occur, then I will analyse it and make a judgement, to resolve this question Yes or No:
- 1)Official Government Investigation Findings: The conclusion of an official investigation (e.g., FBI, DOJ) that publicly declares the assassination attempt was orchestrated or facilitated by individuals within the government, intelligence community, or other established institutions commonly referred to as the "deep state."
- 2)Credible Whistleblower Testimony: Verified and credible testimony from whistleblowers within the government or intelligence agencies that provides concrete evidence of the deep state's involvement in the assassination attempt.
- 3)Major Media Reports: Investigative reports from multiple reputable news organizations (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN) that provide substantiated evidence linking the assassination attempt to deep state actors.
- These reports should be based on verified sources and corroborated by multiple independent investigations.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If none of the three criteria in the description are met (no official investigation, no credible whistleblower, no major media reports), this market will resolve NO (not N/A).