Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 19, 23, 3:51 PM UTCJan 2, 00, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves at close date to YES if the mainstream belief among US citizens is that 9/11 was an inside job, at least partially planned and executed by high officers inside the US government.
- If it continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory, resolves to NO.
- Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- - Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold - Official statements from the government - Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory - General perceived sentiment
- These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
