Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle East3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 69.1%
Forecasters
79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 23, 1:37 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
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The last election was in 2005.
- Future elections have been "postponed indefinitely" by current president Mahmoud Abbas.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Palestinian_presidential_election
- Must be recognized internationally as a valid and fair election for the leadership of the State of Palestine (particularly by the UN and leaders of western nations).
- Doesn't necessarily need to be called a "presidential election".
- Disqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030? resolve?
- Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The last election was in 2005.