Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 17, 23, 1:14 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel recognize a state of Palestine before the end of 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWhich countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
PolymarketWho will recognize Palestine before 2027?
KalshiFIFA U-15 Tournament: Israel U-15 vs Palestine U-15 Opening Match?
LimitlessRules
Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."
- I will also use common sense to avoid vandalism etc and to resolve the question of whether it still exists but the present/past tense is the main criteria by which I will judge the question in order to avoid controversy.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? resolve?
- Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will the State of Palestine still exist on Jan 1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on whether the wikipedia page "State of Palestine" uses the past tense, as in "The State of Palestine was..." instead of the current "The State of Palestine is..."