Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of October 24, 2026.

When does Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? resolve?

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

How is Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the next justice to leave the US Supreme Court for any reason (i.e., death, retirement, impeachment) is a conservative.

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POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep-1.0pt65.3%
• R Senate, D+1.0pt25.7%
• Republicans Sweep7.9%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$36.8M

24h Vol

$3.6M

POLYMARKET

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• Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt83.2%
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-7.0pt16.8%

+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$195.9M

24h Vol

$2.4M

KALSHI

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• James Talarico64.5%
• Ken Paxton+1.0pt36%

Total Vol

$40.8M

24h Vol

$2M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party-0.9pt90.4%
• Republican Party+0.9pt9.5%

Total Vol

$69.3M

24h Vol

$1.6M

POLYMARKET

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

• Flávio Bolsonaro <4%+6.5pt45%
• Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%35%
• Lula da Silva <4%-6.0pt14%

+5 more outcomes

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt65.5%
• D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt24.5%
• Republicans sweep

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