Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 79.9%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 24, 2:04 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the next justice to leave the US Supreme Court for any reason (i.e., death, retirement, impeachment) is a conservative.
- The current conservative justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.
- Resolves NO if the next justice to leave is not one of these conservative justices.
- The question will resolve once the next justice officially vacates their post.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? resolve?
- Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the next justice to leave the US Supreme Court for any reason (i.e., death, retirement, impeachment) is a conservative.