Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.4%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 26, 7:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?
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PolymarketRules
Leaving for any reason counts as YES - resignation (effective in 2026), death, impeachment, etc.