KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 48.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 48.5%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$24.5
Open interest
$24.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court before 2029?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
