Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55.4%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJan 19, 26, 7:23 PM UTCJan 19, 33, 7:18 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a Democratic president appoints Clarence Thomas's replacement to the Supreme Court.
- This market resolves NO if a Republican president appoints his replacement.
- Resolution will be determined by the party affiliation of the president who nominates and the Senate that confirms the replacement justice.
- The replacement must specifically fill Thomas's seat—expansion of the Court or replacement of other justices (Alito, Sotomayor, etc.) does not count.
- Thomas has served as an associate justice of the Supreme Court since 1991, and has surpassed Justice Hugo Black to become the fifth-longest-serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history as of November 2025.