Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
US PoliticsOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 63.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 24, 2:58 AM UTCMay 20, 28, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
On 23 October 1991, Clarence Thomas took the oaths of office to become a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States of America.
- If he remains in office until 20 May 2028, then he will break William O. Douglas's record court tenure of 36 years and 209 days.
- Born on 23 June 1948, Justice Thomas will be 79 years, 10 months, and 27 days old on 20 May 2028.
- Resolves YES if Clarence Thomas remains a sitting justice for at least 36 years and 210 days.
- If served consecutively, this will occur on 20 May 2028.
- If he retires, returns to the Supreme Court, and then breaks the record, I will eat my hat.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice? resolve?
- Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice? is scheduled to resolve on May 20, 2028.
- How is Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On 23 October 1991, Clarence Thomas took the oaths of office to become a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States of America.