Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 18, 25, 8:06 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next presidential election in El Salvador is deemed both free and fair by a majority of reputable international election monitoring organizations, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union (EU).
- Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if these organizations report significant irregularities or violations that compromise the election's freedom and fairness.
- The next presidential election is scheduled for 2029, although this contract will resolve for the next presidential election after the 2024 election, regardless of when it is held.
- El Salvador held its most recent presidential election on February 4, 2024.
- Incumbent President Nayib Bukele secured re-election with approximately 84.6% of the vote.
