Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 92.7%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 24, 8:54 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
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PolymarketRules
As indicated by the Organization of American States.
- Resolves YES if the OAS finds the election is generally free and fair.
- Resolves NO if the OAS finds the election to be not free or not fair.
- If OAS does not comment, I will use my judgement to resolve the market based on another observer, likely considering this list of high-quality election monitoring organizations.
- I'll wait up to two years from the date of the election to get time for comment from OAS.
- If the OAS issues a preliminary report with a clear finding, that will be sufficient to resolve the question.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? resolve?
- Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As indicated by the Organization of American States.