If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 75%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 24, 1:36 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.
- This market resolves as NO in the following scenarios
- -The 2028 election is not conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate doing so though cheating or changing the rules on behalf of their party.
- -The 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, but the transition of power is disrupted in a way that leads to the losing candidate or their party being in power past January 20, 2029.
- -The 2028 election is cancelled or not conducted, allowing a single candidate to remain in power indefintely past the end of their term.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair? resolve?
- If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will the 2028 election be free and fair? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves as YES if Donald Trump wins in 2024, and the 2028 election is conducted freely and fairly, with the winning candidate taking the office of President of the United States on January 20, 2029.