Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.6%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 7:58 PM UTCSep 23, 26, 7:56 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" (also referred to as the Versailles agreement), signed by the United States and Iran on June 17, 2026, remains active and holds through September 17, 2026 (exactly three months after its signing).
- The market will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to 11:59 PM UTC on September 17, 2026:
- Either the United States or Iran formally withdraws from, terminates, or nullifies the memorandum of understanding (or any subsequent comprehensive peace treaty that officially replaces it).
- Direct, state-level military hostilities resume between the United States (or Israel) and Iranian military forces, such as resumed airstrikes on Iranian sovereign territory or direct military clashes in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz.
- Either country officially reinstates a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or Iranian ports.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? resolve?
- Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? is scheduled to resolve on September 23, 2026.
- How is Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria