Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsMonthlyMiddle East21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.7%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Mar 26, 26, 8:39 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan.
- Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz.
- AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
- Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.