KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Transgender (99%)
Resolved: Sep 10, 2026, 4:41 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Transgender
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
88%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 10, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Transgender93%
NATO0%
Rigged Election1%
Event does not qualify2%
Barack Hussein Obama47%
Biden87%
America First1%
Dumbocrat / Dumacrat82%
Israel / Israeli1%
Healthcare84%
Kamala1%
Drill Baby Drill1%
Fentanyl66%
Venezuela83%
Fraud99%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Nobel0%
Mental Institution1%
Scholarship1%
DEI / Woke53%
Ballroom50%
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement1%
Windmill0%
Landslide75%
Communist / Communism83%
China / Chinese75%
Save America Act0%
Space Force43%
Cheat / Cheated / Cheater59%
Supreme Court63%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline75%
Sanctuary1%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability86%
Radical Left86%
MAGA / Make America Great Again75%
TransgenderWon
Barack Hussein ObamaLost
BidenLost
Dumbocrat / DumacratLost
HealthcareLost
FentanylLost
VenezuelaLost
FraudLost
DEI / WokeLost
BallroomLost
LandslideLost
Communist / CommunismLost
China / ChineseLost
Save America ActLost
Space ForceLost
Cheat / Cheated / CheaterLost
Supreme CourtLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Radical LeftLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1) using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1) will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.