IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 56.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 23, 2:37 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution matches with https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23 except resolves N/A if the US is not a party to the Iran nuclear deal on 31 Dec 2025.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $423K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $285.8K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 57% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030? resolve?
- IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution matches with https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23 except resolves N/A if the US is not a party to the Iran nuclear deal on 31 Dec 2025.