IF the US re-enters the Iran deal by 2025 end THEN will Iran develop nuclear weapons by 2030?
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 23, 2:37 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sweden acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran develop a nuclear bomb by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution matches with https://manifold.markets/NickHeinonen/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-12dc938abd23 except resolves N/A if the US is not a party to the Iran nuclear deal on 31 Dec 2025.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action
