Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 1, 25, 11:50 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 12:48 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issues a final, legally binding judgment determining that the Russian Federation committed genocide, as defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
- The resolution will be based on official ICJ publications or reputable news sources reporting on the ICJ's final decision.
- If no such determination is made by the ICJ, the market will resolve to "No."
- The Genocide Convention, adopted in 1948, defines genocide and obligates signatory states to prevent and punish genocide, acts of genocide, incitement to genocide, and so on.
- Ukraine initiated proceedings against Russia at the ICJ after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? resolve?
- Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria