Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffEntertainmentRussia / Ukraine2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 18, 26, 4:24 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketRules
This forecast will resolve YES only if all of the following conditions are met:
- On 12 August 2026, the Russia–Ukraine war officially ends through a peace agreement signed in Kharkiv.
- By 1 December 2026, Russia is replaced by a newly established Eurasian Union formed together with post-Soviet states.
- Relations between the United States and the new Eurasian Union have measurably improved compared with earlier in 2026.
- On 1 December 2026, the final broadcast in Azerbaijan is the film Stalin's Head.
- On the same day in Russia, private television channels broadcast Tri Bogatyry i Morskoy Tsar, children's channels broadcast episode 72 of Skazochny Patrol, and Russia's Patriotic March is played.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.7pt98%
- September 25-8.0pt84%
- September 30-5.0pt76%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.2K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-2.0pt82.2%
- Yes+2.0pt17.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.4M
- 24h Vol
- $339.1K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+3.0pt13%
- September 30+1.4pt4%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt60%
- October 31+4.0pt36%
- September 30+3.0pt11%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+8.0pt75%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026? resolve?
- Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This forecast will resolve YES only if all of the following conditions are met: