Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastAnother pope uses the papal name Peter 20.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 28 days ago
StaleJan 2, 24, 9:44 PMDec 31, 00, 10:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Another pope uses the papal name Peter21%
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KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Rules
I'll resolve this to "the papacy is abolished" if, ten years after the death or resignation or deposition of a pope, a successor hasn't been elected and there are no active plans to elect one.
- Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the event of a schism:
- The denomination with more than 50% of the sum of adherents to all denominations descended from the 2024 Catholic Church will be considered "Catholic" for the purposes of this market.
- If no single denomination meets this >50% threshold, the market will resolve as "The papacy is abolished".