Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 25, 25, 5:09 AM UTCMar 5, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Resolves YES if an ecumenical council is convened by the pope following Pope Francis (An ecumenical council in any location is enough to resolve this as YES.
- It does not have to happen in Vatican City, and does not have to be called "Vatican 3." The name is just making reference to Vatican 2, the most recent ecumenical council).
- Resolves N/A if Pope Francis convenes an ecumenical council, or there's somehow no new pope before 2040.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the next pope convene Vatican 3??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? resolve?
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? is scheduled to resolve on March 5, 2050.
- How is Will the next pope convene Vatican 3? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if an ecumenical council is convened by the pope following Pope Francis (An ecumenical council in any location is enough to resolve this as YES.
